Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 35.155690 39.719784 45.096271 52.024612 60.917648 72.258908 88.384278
2025-04-27 28.929757 34.517970 41.782303 52.358274 68.258534 93.180160 140.658094
2025-05-04 25.194930 31.211110 39.601837 53.027569 76.149915 120.638854 243.106066
2025-05-11 22.503694 28.633019 37.634089 53.136636 83.110708 153.634562 469.802106
2025-05-18 20.329888 26.361051 35.554043 52.293902 87.856682 188.776303 1087.233145
2025-05-25 18.852611 24.866266 34.351279 52.565592 95.159950 245.781381 9152.994318
2025-06-01 17.547030 23.446259 32.999229 52.138477 100.694101 314.101767 NaN
2025-06-08 16.428248 22.182226 31.702609 51.467596 105.360621 401.939989 NaN
2025-06-15 15.482745 21.093902 30.552506 50.818712 109.914161 526.252312 NaN
2025-06-22 14.716792 20.222738 29.671979 50.557132 115.827365 743.152191 NaN
2025-06-29 13.930946 19.251135 28.490918 49.346632 117.785249 978.519095 NaN
2025-07-06 13.718772 19.218275 29.051410 52.447160 139.903808 3649.088260 NaN
2025-07-13 13.101597 18.455589 28.143451 51.710777 145.128386 12416.448322 NaN
2025-07-20 12.652317 17.952448 27.695001 52.112718 157.253696 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.269118 17.536286 27.374133 52.804830 172.765757 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.870328 17.063903 26.887718 52.923914 185.726190 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.429107 16.487589 26.130805 52.090761 191.461852 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.108783 16.110600 25.758922 52.362250 207.438657 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.761817 15.664630 25.199763 51.938453 217.607706 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.423131 15.216019 24.598735 51.272039 225.253091 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.109514 14.798291 24.033515 50.627307 233.008604 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.842454 14.454165 23.604473 50.367388 245.887318 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.531278 14.013748 22.931510 49.164371 245.471939 NaN NaN